Weather for the weekend of 31 March - 1 April 2012

A low with a complex of fronts is sweeping eastwards south of the continent as a high slowly forms in the Bight, leaving slack pressure over most of the continent.

There has been no appreciable rain on the Eastern Downs since the heavy rain of last week and no rain is forecast for the next few days; consequently, the  ground should have dried significantly by the weekend, with only low lying areas remaining soft.



Saturday 31 March 2012
Dalby            30C
Stablity         B
Convection    Dry convection to 9,500ft with cloud base at 8,000ft
Wind             Southerly @ 5kts

Sunday 1 April 2012
Dalby            29C
Stablity         B
Convection    Blue convection to 8,000ft
Wind             Southerly @ 5kts

Weather for the weekend of 24 - 25 March 2012

Updated 23/3/2012

A tropical low is tracking south along the east coast whilst a high pushes east into the Bight. This will bring south easterly flows to south east Queensland by Saturday.

Yesterday:
The heavy rain forecast overnight and into today has not occurred as the  tropical low moved off the coast, taking the heavy rain with it. NOAA is still suggesting the eastern Downs will receive about 10mm rain today, but this is unlikely, with only light falls (1-2mm) likely.
 
The joy of forecasting - instead of this. Oakey had 48mm of rain! What happened? Well, the high pushing in from the west slowed and this allowed the low to track back towards the coast, adding more moisture to the trough which brought the heavier rain further west. But it was a relatively small change, as Dalby has received only 15mm!

Over the last 7 days, Jondaryan received 10mm of rain. Dalby received 37mm and stations between Dalby and Chinchilla received similar amounts.

Unfortunately, the NOAA web server appears to be down at present, so I am unable to update the traces. These traces are from Thursday 22 March and there will have been some change!

Saturday 23 March 2012
Dalby            28C
Stability        C
Convection    Dry convection to 7,000ft with cloud base 6,000ft
Wind             SE @ 5kts

Saturday 23 March 2012
Dalby            2C
Stability        A
Convection    Dry convection to 7,500ft with cloud base 6,000ft
Wind             SE @ 10kts

Weather for the weekend of 17 - 18 March 2012

Updated 16/3/2012

The monsoon trough lies across northern Australia, with TC Laura threaded on it off the Pilbara coast. A trough lies in western Queensland, which is expected to cross the coast on Saturday, although it is fairly weak. Nevertheless, thundery rain can be expected during Saturday and into Sunday, with falls of about 15mm forecast. Once the trough passes, a high in the Bight will ridge up the east coast, bringing a return of easterly flows with associated coastal showers.

There has been less than 4mm of rain throughout the eastern Downs in the last week.

Saturday 17 March 2012
Dalby           30C
Stability        C
Convection    Dry convection to 7,500ft with cloud base at 5,500ft
Wind             SE @ less than 5kts

Significant middle and high cloud is likely to suppress convection completely.


Saturday 17 March 2012
Dalby           27C
Stability        B
Convection    Dry convection to 7,000ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Wind             SE @ 10kts

Weather for the weekend of 10 - 11 March 2012

Updated 9/3/2012

The monsoon low is curled around northern Australia and a trough runs south off the east coast, moving away to the east. A high is building in the Bight which is forecast to move slowly east but only ridge weakly up the east coast. This will bring a generally south/easterly flow to SE Queensland, with possible coastal showers, but these should not cross the range.

Rainfall in the eastern Downs over the last seven days has generally been below 15mm, although a north/south band between Chinchilla and Jandowae and south to Goondiwindi received about 30mm or more.

Saturday March 10 2012
Dalby           31C
Stability        B
Convection   Blue convection to 8,500ft
Wind            Southerly @ less than 5kts

There may be some thin high cloud about which will decrease later in the day.


Saturday March 10 2012
Dalby           30C
Stability        B
Convection   Dry convection to 10,000ft with cloud base 7,000ft
Wind            SE @  5kts

Weather for the Weekend of 3 - 4 March 2012

Updated 2/3/2012

The monsoon trough lingers across northern Australia and a trough runs diagonally from the west Kimberley coast to southern NSW. The southern edge of this trough will be pushed westwards as a high in Bass Straight ridges up the east coast. This ridge will weaken on Sunday, allowing the trough to move east somewhat but it is not expected in SE Queensland until next week.

There has been some rain in the eastern Downs in the last 7 days - Oakey received 6mm and Dalby 4mm, with similar amounts west to Drillham. Further west a band of higher falls runs from Injune, through Wallumbilla and down to St George, with falls of about 30-70mm.

Saturday 3 March 2012
Dalby           34C
Stability        A
Convection    Dry convection to 9,000ft with cloud base 7,000ft
Wind             E @ 10kts

There will be some high cloud about.


Sunday 4 March 2012
Dalby           33C
Stability        A
Convection    Dry convection to 8,500ft with some thin cloud
Wind             ENE @ 5kts

There may be some thin high cloud about.