A high south east of the continent is moving slowly towards New Zealand whilst another approaches the south west of the continent, ridging into the Bight. Slack pressure with associated troughs will dominate the continent through the weekend into the early part of next week. The surface/mid level disturbance that brought the recent rain is now off the coast. However, instability associated with the slack pressure and troughs will bring thundery weather to the Downs through the weekend before clearing late on Monday. NOAA is currently forecasting a further 40-50mm of rain for this period. With the CAPE around 1000J/kg and SLI at -4C to -5C, there will be thunderstorms on both days and these could be severe.
In the last seven days, Dalby has received 37mm of rain and Oakey 17mm,. Further west, the heavy rain passed over Roma (85mm) awith its eastern boundary at Dulacca (32mm).
Saturday 10 December 2011
Dalby 27C
Stability B
Convection Dry convection to 6,000ft with cloud base at 5,000ft
Wind NW @ 10kts
Sunday 11 December 2011
Dalby 30C
Stability A
Convection Dry convection to 8,000ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Wind NW @ 10kts
High and medium cloud cover will be fairly solid throughout the day.
Looking ahead for the Juniors (at Kingaroy) and Caboolture week (at DDSC)
The meteorogram for the next seven days is below. It shows the major thunderstorm activity and rain clearing from the Downs late on Monday, with Tuesday and Wednesday looking promising, despite the possibility of showers. Thursday is showing significant rain at this stage, but that is a bit distant for reliable forecasting (the forecast is clearly moving around quite bit).
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