Weather for the weekend of 22 - 23 October 2011

Updated 21/10/2011

A high off the central NSW coast is moving only very slowly east south east and this feature will dominate the weather in south east Queensland for the weekend. It is directing an easterly flow over the area, which will mean occasional coastal showers, but these are unlikely to cross the divide.

There has been 22mm of rain at Jondaryan and 34mm at Dalby in the last 7 days. This was associated with last Saturday's storms and no rain is currently forecast for the weekend. There could still be wet some areas, but these should be confined to poorly drained and low lying ground.

There will be high cloud about and this could significantly shade the ground on both days.

Saturday 22 October 2011
Dalby                 28C
Stability            A
Convection       Dry convection to 8,500ft with cloud base 8,000ft
Wind                 E @ 5-10kts

There will be high cloud about, quite thick at first but gradually thinning later in the day.


Sunday 23 October 2011
Dalby                28C
Stability            A
Convection       Dry convection to 9,500 ft with cloud base 8,500ft
Wind                 E @ 5-10kts

There will be high cloud about all day.

Outlook for Kiwi week

DDSC is hosting visitors from NZ for the week, so here's a look ahead at how things look, meteorologically speaking.

High pressure with rising temperatures will continue to dominate through the week until a trough, with associated storms, passes through on Friday.

The SLI moves into slightly negative territory on Wednesday and a bit more on Thursday, but with the CAPE below 500 J/kg thunderstorms are unlikely - butthere could be isolated thundery showers.

On Friday, the CAPE rises to 900 J/kg with an SLI of -3C - so thunderstorms are probable but they should not be severe.

Convection heights (under reasonable cumulus) should gradually increase through the week, with Thursday looking like the peak soaring day at this stage.