A high is centred in the Tasman, moving south east whilst another is entering the Bight. Between these is an area of slack pressure in which a trough has formed, spanning the continent. This is expected to move into SE Queensland on Saturday, but appears to stall and dissipate on Sunday without crossing the coast.
There was significant rain in last weekends (unexpectedly) strong trough system, with most of the eastern Downs receiving 25mm or more in the last seven days. Yesterdays rain produced 20mm at Dalby, but only 7mm at Oakey. The eastern Downs may have a light shower on Friday, but it now appears that the weekend trough will not be as active as suggested yesterday, with only about 15mm forecast by NOAA for Saturday. There could be some light thundery showers on Sunday.
Saturday 15 October 2011
Dalby 25C
Stability A
Convection Dry convection to 5,000 ft with cloud base of 4,500ft
Wind North westerly @ 10 to 15 kts
NOAA has the SLI at -6C and the CAPE at 1500J/Kg. This means SEVERE thunderstorm activity is very likely.
Sunday 16 October 2011
Dalby 27C
Stability B
Convection Dry convection to 8,000 ft with cloud base of 7,000ft
Wind South westerly @ 10 kts
Thunderstorms or thundery showers are possible, with a CAPE of 600 J/Kg and an SLI of -2C.
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