A trough lies from southern WA, north and then through the NT and back south through Queensland. The trough will move quite slowly, probably crossing the coast late on Saturday. This will bring thundery showers and occasional thunderstorms to SE Queensland on Saturday.
The past seven days saw about 5 mm of rain in most of the downs, with higher falls west of Chinchilla (about 9mm) and towards Goondiwindi (20mm).Rain on Thursday brought about 7mm to Oakey and Dalby. It is thus likely that some paddocks will remain wet over the weekend and there may be some supression of convection.
At this stage, NOAA is forecasting about 5mm of rain from the showers/thunderstorms on Saturday.
Saturday 8 October 2011
Dalby 26C
Stability B
Convection Dry convection to 10,500ft with cloud base of 7,500ft
Wind WSW @ 5 - 10kts
Showers from towering Cu and rain from Cb are likely, with a CAPE of over 400 J/Kg and an SLA 0f -2C.
Sunday 9 October 2011
Dalby 28C
Stability A
Convection Dry convection to 8,500ft with some wispy cloud possible
Wind W @ 10 kts
There is likely to be high cloud about that could shade the ground, suppressing convection.
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