The monsoon trough lies across northern Australia, bringing heavy rain to the north of the state whilst a series of highs moves through to the south of the continent. These will maintain an easterly flow across the southern half of Queensland through the weekend. The troughs lying between the highs will dissipate or stall as the highs ridge up the east coast and so will not affect the eastern half of Queensland.
There has been significant rainfall across the Downs in the last seven days. Around Oakey, falls were around 40mm, but west and north of Dalby they were typically 60-100mm. There is a possibility of thundery rain on both Saturday and Sunday, but if falls occur they will be localised and light.
Despite there being no rain for several days, water will remain on the surface in some areas and many paddocks will remain damp. As no significant rain is forecast through to Sunday, further drying will continue, but convection will still be suppressed in some area by the wet ground.
The SOI remains high at over 20, with a 50%-70% chance of above median rainfall through to late May.
Saturday 12 March
Dalby 29C
Stability A
Convection Dry convection to 6,500ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Wind NE @ 5-10kts
Day conditions
The atmosphere is fairly moist at mid and high levels. There will be some cloud st mid and high level. This could become thick enough to suppress convection in some places. Some over development is also likely. Caution will be needed if flying cross country as this will make for tricky conditions above paddocks, some of which are likely to remain wet.
Sunday 13 March
Dalby 30C
Stability B
Convection Dry convection to 7,500ft with cloud base at 6,000ft
Wind Easterly @ 5-10kts
Day conditions
The atmosphere remains moist, with a strong possibility of fairly thick high cloud in some patches along with occasional mid level cloud. If convection does start, it is likely that over development will occur.
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