Updated 4/2/2011
Ex-TC Yasi is expected to continue west and weaken into a tropical low in southern NT and SE Queensland will not be directly affected by this monster storm.
A high is slowly entering the Bight and will be south of WA by Sunday evening. By Sunday evening, the monsoon trough will stretch from the Indian Ocean, through the southern Kimberley to link with Ex TC Yasi in the southern NT and a trough extends from there ESE through the central NSW coast.
East of the trough, the atmosphere will be unstable and thunderstorms can be expected over the weekend. Saturday could see afternoon and evening thunderstorms (CAPE approaching 1400 J/kg, SLI -4C), more extensive thunderstorms are possible on Sunday (CAPE 1600 J/Kg, SLI over -4C), starting earlier and running later into the day.
A high north of NZ will continue to direct onshore flows in southern Queensland, bringing coastal showers that will decrease in frequency over the next 4 days. These are unlikely to cross the range.
No rain has been reported on the Darling Downs in the last seven days.
Saturday 5 February 2011
Dalby 33C
Stability A
Convection Dry convection to 7,000ft with some wispy cloud
Wind NE @ 5 kts
Day Conditions
The atmosphere is quite moist and consequently cloud could form at both mid and high levels. There is also considerable potential for over development. Allied to the thunderstorm risk, the day is probably not going to be conducive to XC flight.
Sunday 6 February 2011
Dalby 34C
Stability B
Convection Dry convection to 7,500ft with cloud base 7,000ft
Wind N @ 5 kts
Day conditions
It is likely that there will be high level cloud, potentially heavy enough in patches to shade the ground. Allied to the thunderstorm risk, the day is probably not conducive to XC flying.
0 comments:
Post a Comment